Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature Steering
Mirrored from arXiv — NLP / Computation & Language for archival readability. Support the source by reading on the original site.
Computer Science > Computation and Language
Title:Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature Steering
Abstract:Successful forecasting involves identifying patterns between historical and future states of the world which generalize to future observations. We apply LLMs to a variety of forecasting tasks and inspect their internal states using sparse autoencoders to understand whether they appear to rely on time-specific pieces of knowledge versus generalizable patterns. Our analyses identify features associated with both time-aware reasoning and look-ahead-biased reasoning. We then apply the LLMs to an entirely different domain and intervene on these features. We find that amplifying time-awareness features substantially reduces look-ahead bias on forecasting prompts while preserving general reasoning performance. In contrast, steering the candidate look-ahead-bias features does not produce an effect. These results suggest that interpretable temporal features can be used to causally shift LLMs toward more historically grounded reasoning.
| Subjects: | Computation and Language (cs.CL); Machine Learning (cs.LG) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2606.27199 [cs.CL] |
| (or arXiv:2606.27199v1 [cs.CL] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.27199
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
|
Access Paper:
- View PDF
- HTML (experimental)
- TeX Source
References & Citations
Bookmark
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
Demos
Recommenders and Search Tools
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
More from arXiv — NLP / Computation & Language
-
Generating in the Limit with Infinitely Many Hallucinations
Jun 30
-
Extracting Knowledge from an Arabic-English Machine-Readable Dictionary Using Information Extraction
Jun 30
-
Developmental Trajectories of Situation Modeling and Mentalizing in Transformer Language Models
Jun 30
-
A French OSCE Dialogue Dataset and Controllable Virtual Patient System for Clinical Training
Jun 30
Discussion (0)
Sign in to join the discussion. Free account, 30 seconds — email code or GitHub.
Sign in →No comments yet. Sign in and be the first to say something.