Title:Auditable Climate Risk Intelligence from Fragmented ESG Data: Deterministic Orchestration and Imbalance-Aware Learning for Scope 1-3 Validation

Abstract:ESG and climate risk data remain fragmented across heterogeneous Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 reporting environments, while conventional validation pipelines lack provenance aware auditability, hidden drift detection, and reproducibility oriented governance. This paper proposes a deterministic climate risk intelligence framework integrating single source of truth orchestration, temporal anomaly detection, imbalance aware ensemble learning, and explainability oriented governance for auditable ESG validation. To support open reproducibility, we construct and release a synthetic ESG validation benchmark calibrated against publicly reported characteristics of the GHG Protocol, PCAF, and ISSB standards. The methodology incorporates temporal drift analysis, SMOTE based rare event optimization, ensemble learning, provenance aware orchestration, and TreeSHAP based interpretability for governance inspection and audit reconstruction. We evaluate the framework against statistical classifiers, anomaly detection methods, temporal forecasting baselines, and a threshold based system using classification metrics (recall, F1, ROC AUC), calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score), and a governance oriented audit trace completeness metric measuring the fraction of flagged anomalies for which a deterministic source to escalation provenance chain can be reconstructed. Results are reported as mean and standard deviation across stratified five fold cross validation with paired significance testing. The framework reframes ESG reporting toward deterministic climate risk governance infrastructure supporting reproducibility, explainability, and operational auditability.

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