Projected climate memory and inherited warm-tail risk in accelerated European summer warming
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Physics > Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
arXiv:2608.09966 (physics)
[Submitted on 28 Jul 2026]
Title:Projected climate memory and inherited warm-tail risk in accelerated European summer warming
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Abstract:European summer warming reflects interactions among background change, persistent ocean--land--circulation states, and same-season variability. We develop an empirical reduced-dynamics framework that decomposes regional summer indicators into inherited slow-state memory, its predictable component, and contemporaneous innovation. Projection-operator theory motivates the decomposition, implemented with finite causal filters, ridge-regularised prediction, and logistic risk models. Using ERA5-derived summer indicators for 28 IPCC AR6 European sub-regions over 1950--2024, with validation on 2006--2024, we find that Mediterranean-state memory improves mean summer-temperature prediction relative to trend-only and ARX baselines. The gain over ARX is modest, while moving-average, exponentially weighted, and tempered filters contain similar annual information, indicating that the data identify useful slow-state memory more robustly than a unique kernel shape. Predictable-state reconstruction is ridge-sensitive and therefore treated diagnostically rather than as a forecasting model. The strongest result concerns warm-tail risk. In parsimonious logistic models, high accumulated Mediterranean memory raises predicted upper-tail event probability by about 8--11 percentage points for annual maximum summer temperature, warm-day frequency, and warm-spell duration at 1-, 3-, and 5-year horizons. Regional bootstrap intervals remain positive for all targets and horizons. Circular-shift placebos yield one-sided probabilities of approximately 0.05--0.14 and do not survive strict family-wise correction across nine tests, so the evidence is moderate rather than decisive. Overall, annual projected memory is not a universal short-horizon predictor, but a physically interpretable inherited risk-loading variable identifying years and regions predisposed to warm-tail outcomes.
| Subjects: | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Applications (stat.AP) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2608.09966 [physics.ao-ph] |
| (or arXiv:2608.09966v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.09966
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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Submission history
From: Mauricio Herrera [view email][v1] Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:23:06 UTC (1,053 KB)
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