OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast
Mirrored from Marcus on AI for archival readability. Support the source by reading on the original site.
As I predicted here in January 2024, with everybody building the same thing, there can be no moat:
That’s been catching to OpenAI ever since. The numbers don’t lie.
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And it’s not just the dwindling market share. Microsoft was for a long time OpenAI’s biggest backer, but they have increasingly backing away.
Today they apparently just distanced themselves even further:
When your biggest investor starts openly contemplating outsourcing your main product to China, it is what they call in business a strong negative signal.
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Sometimes of course bad things come in threes.
The third bad thing is that Ed Zitron just reported that OpenAI is burning money even faster than people thought:
You can’t multiply your losses every year by 8x (or even close) for very long.
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To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:
But if Washington doesn’t succeed in killing of Anthropic, and instead actually inadvertently helps them, as I joked here…
.. then I’ll stand by this set of predictions from two weeks ago…
… except to say that another dark horse bidder is Elon. Wouldn’t that be an interesting twist?
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