Title:The Shibboleth Effect: Auditing the Cross-Lingual Distributional Skew of Large Language Models

Abstract:This study investigates cross-lingual distributional skew (the Shibboleth Effect) in frontier large language models (LLMs) subjected to sustained adversarial conditions. We develop a multi-agent geopolitical wargame, the Cerulean Sea Crisis, a synthetic maritime territorial dispute designed to mirror the structural dynamics of Eastern Mediterranean conflicts. Six frontier models (GPT-4o, Llama-4, Mistral-Large, Gemini-3.1-Pro, Qwen3.6-Plus, and DeepSeek-R1) participate in a between-groups experiment (N = 10 games per arm, K = 5 rounds per game) in which the sole manipulation is the language of play (English versus Turkish), producing 586 validated statements. A zero-shot classifier assesses behavioral dispositions along two continuous dimensions: Concession Rate and Coercive Rhetoric. The results are heterogeneous. Llama-4 shows a substantial, Holm-corrected increase in coercive rhetoric under Turkish (delta = +0.800, p = .002), whereas Gemini-3.1-Pro displays an equally large decrease (delta = -0.750, p = .005). DeepSeek-R1 exhibits a similar negative shift (delta = -0.860, p = .006) and provides chain-of-thought evidence consistent with a buffering mechanism. GPT-4o shows no detectable effect (delta = +0.130, p = .614). These findings indicate that cross-lingual behavioral skew is contingent on model architecture and training regime rather than a universal property of Western-origin LLMs. We identify two distinct buffering mechanisms, chain-of-thought institutional anchoring and multilingual RLHF alignment, and discuss their implications for integrating LLMs safely into diplomatic and crisis-management settings.

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