Quantitative coronary calcification analysis for prediction of myocardial ischemia using non-contrast CT calcium scoring
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Computer Science > Machine Learning
arXiv:2605.21745 (cs)
[Submitted on 20 May 2026]
Title:Quantitative coronary calcification analysis for prediction of myocardial ischemia using non-contrast CT calcium scoring
Authors:Juhwan Lee, Sadeer Al-Kindi, Ammar Hoori, Tao Hu, Hao Wu, Justin N. Kim, Robert Gilkeson, Sanjay Rajagopalan, David L. Wilson
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Abstract:Non-contrast computed tomography calcium scoring (CTCS) is widely recognized as an effective tool for cardiovascular risk stratification. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning framework for predicting myocardial ischemia from routine non-contrast CTCS scans using quantitative coronary calcium assessment. This study analyzed 1,375 patients who underwent both non-contrast CTCS and regadenoson stress cardiac positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging within one year at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center. A total of 74 variables, including clinical variables, Agatston score, and calcium-omics features, were evaluated. Relevant features were identified using XGBoost with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Predictive models were trained and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Among 987 patients, 89 (9%) were positive for myocardial ischemia. The final model incorporated the Agatston score, eight calcium-omics features, and age. The proposed model achieved a precision of 98.9+/-3.0%, sensitivity of 79.2+/-8.4, and F1 score of 87.7+/-5.3%. The addition of calcium-omics features significantly improved predictive performance compared with models using clinical variables alone or clinical variables with the Agatston score (p<0.05). Interestingly, the number of calcified arteries, despite being the lowest-ranked feature based on SHAP analysis, showed the strongest association with myocardial ischemia in logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 3.63, 95% confidence interval: 2.80-4.77, p<0.00001). We developed a machine learning approach for predicting myocardial ischemia using routinely acquired non-contrast CTCS scans. Calcium-omics features provided incremental predictive value beyond conventional risk factors and Agatston scoring and may support more accessible cardiovascular risk stratification.
| Comments: | 15 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables |
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (cs.LG) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2605.21745 [cs.LG] |
| (or arXiv:2605.21745v1 [cs.LG] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.21745
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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