A Unified Causal Inference Framework for the Desirability of Outcome Ranking Paradigm in Benefit-Risk Evaluation
Mirrored from arXiv — Machine Learning for archival readability. Support the source by reading on the original site.
Statistics > Machine Learning
Title:A Unified Causal Inference Framework for the Desirability of Outcome Ranking Paradigm in Benefit-Risk Evaluation
Abstract:We developed a unified covariate-adjusted causal inference framework for estimating the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) probability for benefit-risk evaluation in randomized trials and observational studies. The framework expresses the DOOR probability as a bilinear functional of the marginal ordinal outcome distributions under the two treatment strategies, estimates conditional ordinal distributions through sequential risk-set hazards, and derives the efficient influence function (EIF) of the DOOR probability. The point-estimation simulations compared G-computation, normalized inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), with nuisance functions estimated using generalized linear models or Super Learner (SL). TMLE-SL showed the strongest and most consistent point-estimation performance, with AIPW-SL ranking second. EIF-based inference was then evaluated for AIPW-SL and TMLE-SL, with and without cross-fitting, across settings varying in overlap, treatment-effect heterogeneity, and treatment allocation. CVTMLE-SL showed the strongest overall performance across DOOR-scale bias, recovery of the underlying ordinal distributions, standard-error accuracy, and confidence-interval coverage. We illustrate the methodology using data from the multidrug-resistant organism network of the Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group.
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Methodology (stat.ME) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2608.05244 [stat.ML] |
| (or arXiv:2608.05244v1 [stat.ML] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.05244
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
|
Access Paper:
- View PDF
- HTML (experimental)
- TeX Source
Current browse context:
References & Citations
Bookmark
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
Demos
Recommenders and Search Tools
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
More from arXiv — Machine Learning
-
LoKiFormer: Locality-aware Attention with Decoupled Knowledge Memory for Efficient Large Language Model Pretraining
Aug 14
-
Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods
Aug 14
-
MARCH: Scaling Recurrent Memory with Content-Routed State Anchors
Aug 14
-
Multi-AUV Ad-hoc network-based Target Tracking: A Value Gradient Guidance Multi-Agent Diffusion Reinforcement Learning Approach
Aug 14
Discussion (0)
Sign in to join the discussion. Free account, 30 seconds — email code or GitHub.
Sign in →No comments yet. Sign in and be the first to say something.