Why Dario is on fire: lesson from dotcom bubble.

Dotcom bubble (stock surge and crash in early 2000s related to internet tech) did not pop because the Internet is not legit.

Instead: the Internet became successful as cheap, easy to use stuff (modems, PCs, email, ebay, WordPress, bulletin boards) that anyone could use for his own goals.

Big companies that did well (Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Cisco and similar) had strong structural MOAT in a niche (search engine, hardware, enterprise software - all benefit from scale).

Those who had no real MOAT, just wishful thinking how they collect rent from everyone, collapsed when investors demanded money. And therefore a crash.

Now Dario's key bet is that he will make such smart AI that everyone would need to use, and then give him rent and data. In the process he plans to burn trillion dollars of other people money, for data centers, bonuses and dumping (subsidized subscriptions).

But the reality of LLM he faces is as follows:

- limited technology that face plateau once available human produced data exhausted.

- can be cheaply improved in domains like maths or coding (falsely claimed to be equivalent to intelligence), but not for most real world problems.

- know-how how to build them is straightforward and broadly known.

People serve locally not just because local OSS has advantages, but because once you design and optimize your agents well, then local OSS is good enough for many money-making uses, and getting gpt5.5 or opus for $30 for 1m tokens gets you no ROI whatsoever.

That is the problem.